Predictions of HCV-related morbidity and mortality

Regarding future HCV-related mortality, no additional work was performed since the 2006 publication of Deuffic et al.. Since its predictions did not take into account the mortality related to infections posterior to the year 2000, or the impact of antiviral therapy, it remains valid under these limitations. It was based on a previously published back calculation model adapted to the Egypt case. It combined a general model of the natural history of HCV infections with available epidemiological data to back calculate the annual HCV incidence in the past from observed 1980-1999 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality. In turn, the current and future burden of HCV-related mortality due to pre-2000 infections was projected in the future. Compared with 1999, the model predicts a 3.5-fold increase for HCV-related HCC mortality, and a 2.4-fold increase for HCV-related liver failure mortality (see Figure below).


Figure morbidity mortality


Main conclusion of this study: HCV-related mortality is predicted to more than double between 2000 and 2020 and may reach 20 000 deaths per year in 2020.


Read more: Deuffic-Burban et al., J Hepatol, 2006


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